Likely vs. Probable — What's the Difference?
By Maham Liaqat & Fiza Rafique — Updated on April 5, 2024
"Likely" suggests a high chance of occurrence, implying strong possibility, while "probable" denotes a scenario that is more certain to happen, based on evidence or reasoning.
Difference Between Likely and Probable
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Key Differences
The term "likely" is used to indicate that something has a good chance of happening, emphasizing possibility without certainty. It is often used in situations where there is a strong inclination towards a certain outcome, but without enough evidence to deem it certain. On the other hand, "probable" suggests a higher degree of certainty, often backed by evidence or statistical reasoning, indicating that an event is more than likely to occur.
When describing future events, "likely" is less assertive than "probable," which conveys a stronger belief in the occurrence based on available information or analysis. For instance, weather forecasts might use "likely" to suggest a significant chance of rain, whereas "probable" would be used when conditions almost certainly point to rain, based on meteorological data.
In practical use, "likely" is versatile, applied in casual and formal contexts to suggest high possibility, whereas "probable" is more commonly used in formal, analytical, or scientific contexts where outcomes can be somewhat quantified or assessed based on evidence.
The choice between "likely" and "probable" can also reflect the speaker's or writer's perspective on the uncertainty of the event. Using "likely" might imply a cautious approach to predictions, while "probable" asserts a stronger confidence in the outcome, sometimes reflecting a more informed or evidence-based stance.
Despite their differences, "likely" and "probable" are often used interchangeably in everyday language. However, in fields where precision is crucial, such as statistics, law, or science, the distinction becomes more significant, with "probable" often reserved for scenarios with a higher level of certainty.
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Comparison Chart
Definition
Indicates a high chance of occurrence, emphasizing possibility.
Suggests an event is more certain to happen, often backed by evidence.
Degree of Certainty
High possibility without certainty.
Higher degree of certainty, often quantified or assessed.
Usage Context
Versatile, used in both casual and formal contexts.
More common in formal, analytical, or scientific contexts.
Connotation
Suggests caution or a less assertive prediction.
Implies stronger confidence in the outcome, based on analysis or evidence.
Fields of Precision
Used broadly across various contexts.
More precise in fields like statistics, law, or science.
Compare with Definitions
Likely
Probable, but not certain.
He's likely the best candidate for the job.
Probable
Used when outcomes are quantifiable.
The probable cause of the outage was identified.
Likely
Frequently used in general predictions.
She's likely to arrive on time.
Probable
Likely to happen or be true, with stronger evidence.
It's probable that the event will be postponed due to the storm.
Likely
Suggests possibility based on general observation.
They are likely to agree with us.
Probable
Implies a higher degree of certainty than "likely".
His promotion is probable by next year.
Likely
Less formal, versatile usage.
It's likely that we'll go to the beach this weekend.
Probable
Often used in formal analyses.
The probable outcomes have been thoroughly evaluated.
Likely
Having a high chance of occurring.
It's likely to rain tomorrow.
Probable
Reflects a more informed or evidence-based stance.
Based on the symptoms, a diagnosis is probable.
Likely
Such as well might happen or be true; probable
Sales are likely to drop further
It was likely that he would make a televised statement
Speculation on the likely effect of opting out
Probable
Likely to happen or to be true
War seemed probable in 1938. The home team, far ahead, is the probable winner.
Likely
Apparently suitable; promising
A likely-looking spot
Probable
Likely but uncertain; plausible.
Likely
Probably
We will most likely go to a bar
Probable
(Theology) Of or relating to opinions and actions in ethics and morals for whose lawfulness intrinsic reasons or extrinsic authority may be adduced.
Likely
Possessing or displaying the qualities or characteristics that make something probable
They are likely to become angry with him. See Usage Note at liable.
Probable
Likely or most likely to be true.
It's probable that it will rain tomorrow.
The probable source of the failure was the mass of feathers in the intake manifold.
Likely
Within the realm of credibility; plausible
Not a very likely excuse.
Probable
Likely to happen.
With all the support we have, success is looking probable.
Likely
Apparently appropriate or suitable
There were several likely candidates for the job.
Probable
Supporting, or giving ground for, belief, but not demonstrating.
Likely
Apt to achieve success or yield a desired outcome; promising
A likely topic for investigation.
Probable
(obsolete) Capable of being proved.
Likely
Attractive; pleasant
Found a likely spot under a shady tree for the picnic.
Probable
Something that is likely.
Likely
Probably
They'll likely buy a new car soon.
Probable
A person who is likely to appear or do a certain thing.
Likely
Probable; having a greater-than-even chance of occurring
Rain is likely later this afternoon.
Probable
Capable of being proved.
Likely
Reasonably to be expected; apparently destined, probable
They are likely to become angry with him.
He is likely to succeed at anything he tries.
Probable
Having more evidence for than against; supported by evidence which inclines the mind to believe, but leaves some room for doubt; likely.
That is accounted probable which has better arguments producible for it than can be brought against it.
I do not say that the principles of religion are merely probable; I have before asserted them to be morally certain.
Likely
Appropriate, suitable; believable; having a good potential
Jones is a likely candidate for management.
Probable
Rendering probable; supporting, or giving ground for, belief, but not demonstrating; as, probable evidence; probable presumption.
Likely
Plausible; within the realm of credibility
Not a very likely excuse.
Probable
An applicant likely to be chosen
Likely
Promising; apt to achieve success or yield a desired outcome
A likely topic for investigation.
Probable
Likely but not certain to be or become true or real;
A likely result
He foresaw a probable loss
Likely
Attractive; pleasant
I found a likely spot under a shady tree for the picnic.
Probable
Apparently destined;
The probable consequences of going ahead with the scheme
Likely
(obsolete) Similar; like; alike.
Likely
Something or somebody considered likely.
Likely
(obsolete) Similarly.
Likely
Probably.
Likely he’ll win the election in this economy.
Likely
Worthy of belief; probable; credible; as, a likely story.
It seems likely that he was in hope of being busy and conspicuous.
Likely
Having probability; having or giving reason to expect; - followed by the infinitive; as, it is likely to rain.
Likely
Similar; like; alike.
Likely
Such as suits; good-looking; pleasing; agreeable; handsome.
Likely
Having such qualities as make success probable; well adapted to the place; promising; as, a likely young man; a likely servant.
Likely
Improbable; unlikely; - used ironically; as, a likely story.
Likely
In all probability; probably.
While man was innocent he was likely ignorant of nothing that imported him to know.
Likely
Has a good chance of being the case or of coming about;
These services are likely to be available to us all before long
She is likely to forget
A likely place for a restaurant
The broken limb is likely to fall
Rain is likely
A likely topic for investigation
Likely candidates for the job
Likely
Likely but not certain to be or become true or real;
A likely result
He foresaw a probable loss
Likely
Expected to become or be; in prospect;
Potential clients
Expected income
Likely
Within the realm of credibility;
Not a very likely excuse
A plausible story
Likely
With considerable certainty; without much doubt;
He is probably out of the country
In all likelihood we are headed for war
Common Curiosities
Can "likely" and "probable" be used interchangeably?
While often used interchangeably in everyday language, "probable" carries a stronger implication of certainty, especially in technical or formal contexts.
What does it mean when something is likely?
When something is likely, it has a high chance of happening, though it's not guaranteed.
How does probable differ from likely?
Probable indicates a scenario is more certain to occur, often supported by evidence or reasoning, whereas likely suggests a strong possibility without guarantee.
Can something be likely and not probable?
In everyday usage, this distinction is less clear, but technically, "likely" may suggest a lesser degree of certainty compared to "probable," which is based on stronger evidence.
Does the use of "likely" imply doubt?
Using "likely" might suggest a cautious approach or acknowledgment of uncertainty, though it still indicates a high chance of occurrence.
Can weather forecasts be considered likely or probable?
Weather forecasts often use both terms to indicate the confidence level in predictions. "Likely" might be used for forecasts with a good chance of occurrence, while "probable" could indicate forecasts made with a higher degree of confidence based on current weather models and data.
Does the distinction between likely and probable affect decision-making?
Yes, the distinction can affect decision-making, especially in risk assessment, planning, and strategy. Decisions based on "probable" scenarios might carry more weight and require more immediate or robust action than those based on "likely" scenarios due to the perceived higher certainty.
Is "likely" or "probable" more certain?
"Probable" denotes a higher level of certainty compared to "likely," as it's often based on evidence or detailed analysis.
How do I decide whether to use "likely" or "probable"?
Choose "likely" for general predictions with a good chance of happening and "probable" when you have specific evidence or analysis that makes an event more certain.
Is "probable" used only when there is statistical evidence?
"Probable" is not exclusively used with statistical evidence but is more convincing when there is some form of evidence or reasoning supporting the likelihood of an event. It's broadly applicable in contexts where outcomes can be assessed with a degree of certainty, not just statistically.
Are there contexts where only one of the terms should be used?
In scientific, legal, or statistical contexts, the choice between "likely" and "probable" can be significant, with "probable" often preferred for more evidence-based conclusions.
How do experts determine if an event is likely or probable?
Experts consider the available evidence, historical data, and statistical analyses to determine if an event is likely or probable. "Likely" might be used with less definitive evidence, while "probable" is used when the evidence strongly supports the occurrence of an event.
In legal contexts, how are "likely" and "probable" interpreted?
In legal contexts, "likely" and "probable" can have specific interpretations related to the burden of proof or the standard of evidence. "Probable cause," for example, suggests a reasonable basis to believe a fact is true or an event has occurred, which is a key standard in law enforcement and legal proceedings.
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Written by
Maham Liaqat
Co-written by
Fiza RafiqueFiza Rafique is a skilled content writer at AskDifference.com, where she meticulously refines and enhances written pieces. Drawing from her vast editorial expertise, Fiza ensures clarity, accuracy, and precision in every article. Passionate about language, she continually seeks to elevate the quality of content for readers worldwide.
