Conjecture vs. Surmise — What's the Difference?
By Urooj Arif & Fiza Rafique — Updated on April 5, 2024
Conjecture involves forming an opinion based on incomplete information, while surmise is a guess based on intuition or slight evidence.
Difference Between Conjecture and Surmise
Table of Contents
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Key Differences
Conjecture is the process of forming an opinion or theory without sufficient evidence or proof. It is often used in contexts where data is missing, and a hypothesis is needed to fill the knowledge gap. On the other hand, surmise is more than a guess; it is an inference drawn from the available, albeit limited, evidence or intuition. It implies a certain level of reasoning or deduction based on the evidence at hand.
While conjecture allows for the creation of broad theories or hypotheses, surmise tends to be more focused, typically applied to specific situations or pieces of evidence. Conjecture can initiate a line of inquiry or research, encouraging further investigation to prove or disprove the theory. Meanwhile, surmise might lead to a more immediate conclusion or action, based on the interpreter's intuition and the evidence observed.
In the realm of scientific research, conjectures play a crucial role in developing new theories and guiding experimental designs. Scientists make conjectures based on observed phenomena and existing knowledge, which then become subjects for experimentation. Surmise, while also used in scientific contexts, is often more associated with everyday reasoning and decision-making, where quick judgments or assessments are needed based on incomplete information.
Conjecture often involves a creative leap, imagining possibilities beyond the current evidence or beyond what is directly observable. Surmise, by contrast, is more grounded in the evidence, however scant, and involves a more direct line of reasoning from what is known to what is inferred.
Despite their differences, both conjecture and surmise are valuable cognitive tools. Conjecture encourages exploration and the generation of new ideas, while surmise allows for rapid assessments and decisions when full information is not available.
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Comparison Chart
Basis
Often lacks any solid evidence.
Based on limited evidence or intuition.
Application
Broad, generating hypotheses or theories.
More focused, applied to specific situations.
Role in Science
Initiates research and exploration.
Used for immediate reasoning or assessments.
Nature
Creative and speculative.
Reasoned and somewhat evidential.
Outcome
Leads to further investigation.
Leads to immediate conclusions or actions.
Compare with Definitions
Conjecture
Speculation or guesswork.
The novel's ending left room for much conjecture among its readers.
Surmise
An inference based on limited evidence.
His surmise that the company would go bankrupt soon proved accurate.
Conjecture
A proposition that is unproven.
The mathematician presented a conjecture that challenged established theories.
Surmise
The act of making a judgment without full evidence.
The detective's surmise led him to investigate the suspect further.
Conjecture
A hypothesis formed without solid evidence.
His conjecture about the lost city's location sparked a major archaeological expedition.
Surmise
A conclusion drawn from scant evidence.
The archaeologist's surmise about the artifact's origin sparked debate.
Conjecture
An opinion formed from incomplete information.
The scientist's conjecture led to the development of a new experiment.
Surmise
A guess based on intuition.
Her surmise about the surprise party turned out to be true.
Conjecture
The act of forming theories without proof.
Conjecture about the universe's origin ranges widely among cosmologists.
Surmise
An assumption made with confidence.
Based on the available clues, her surmise about the mystery was remarkably close to the truth.
Conjecture
In mathematics, a conjecture is a conclusion or a proposition which is suspected to be true due to preliminary supporting evidence, but for which no proof or disproof has yet been found. Some conjectures, such as the Riemann hypothesis (still a conjecture) or Fermat's Last Theorem (a conjecture until proven in 1995 by Andrew Wiles), have shaped much of mathematical history as new areas of mathematics are developed in order to prove them.
Surmise
To make a judgment about (something) without sufficient evidence; guess
"In another pocket he came across what he surmised in the dark were pennies, erroneously, however, as it turned out" (James Joyce).
Conjecture
An opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information
Conjectures about the newcomer were many and varied
A matter for conjecture
Surmise
To say (something) as a guess or conjecture.
Conjecture
Form an opinion or supposition about (something) on the basis of incomplete information
Many conjectured that the jury could not agree
Surmise
To make a guess or conjecture.
Conjecture
Opinion or judgment based on inconclusive or incomplete evidence; guesswork.
Surmise
An idea or opinion based on insufficiently conclusive evidence; a conjecture.
Conjecture
An opinion or conclusion based on guesswork
The commentators made various conjectures about the outcome of the next election.
Surmise
Thought, imagination, or conjecture, which may be based upon feeble or scanty evidence; suspicion; guess.
Surmises of jealousy or of envy
This opinion, however, is merely a surmise, which may or may not be the case.
Conjecture
To judge or conclude by conjecture; guess
"From the comparative silence below ... I conjectured that Mr Rochester was now at liberty" (Charlotte Brontë).
Surmise
Reflection; thought; posit.
Conjecture
To make a conjecture.
Surmise
To imagine or suspect; to conjecture; to posit with contestable premises.
If, as I surmise, you see the ladies this evening, you might mention my intended visit.
Conjecture
(formal) A statement or an idea which is unproven, but is thought to be true; a guess.
I explained it, but it is pure conjecture whether he understood, or not.
Surmise
A thought, imagination, or conjecture, which is based upon feeble or scanty evidence; suspicion; guess; as, the surmisses of jealousy or of envy.
[We] double honor gainFrom his surmise proved false.
No man ought to be charged with principles he actually disowns, unless his practicies contradict his profession; not upon small surmises.
Conjecture
(formal) A supposition based upon incomplete evidence; a hypothesis.
The physicist used his conjecture about subatomic particles to design an experiment.
Surmise
Reflection; thought.
Conjecture
A statement likely to be true based on available evidence, but which has not been formally proven.
Surmise
To imagine without certain knowledge; to infer on slight grounds; to suppose, conjecture, or suspect; to guess.
It wafted nearer yet, and then she knewThat what before she but surmised, was true.
This change was not wrought by altering the form or position of the earth, as was surmised by a very learned man, but by dissolving it.
Conjecture
(obsolete) Interpretation of signs and omens.
Surmise
A message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence
Conjecture
To guess; to venture an unproven idea.
I do not know if it is true; I am simply conjecturing here.
Surmise
Infer from incomplete evidence
Conjecture
(transitive) To infer on slight evidence; to guess at.
Surmise
Imagine to be the case or true or probable;
I suspect he is a fugitive
I surmised that the butler did it
Conjecture
An opinion, or judgment, formed on defective or presumptive evidence; probable inference; surmise; guess; suspicion.
He [Herodotus] would thus have corrected his first loose conjecture by a real study of nature.
Conjectures, fancies, built on nothing firm.
Conjecture
To arrive at by conjecture; to infer on slight evidence; to surmise; to guess; to form, at random, opinions concerning.
Human reason can then, at the best, but conjecture what will be.
Conjecture
To make conjectures; to surmise; to guess; to infer; to form an opinion; to imagine.
Conjecture
A hypothesis that has been formed by speculating or conjecturing (usually with little hard evidence);
Speculations about the outcome of the election
He dismissed it as mere conjecture
Conjecture
A message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence
Conjecture
Reasoning that involves the formation of conclusions from incomplete evidence
Conjecture
To believe especially on uncertain or tentative grounds;
Scientists supposed that large dinosaurs lived in swamps
Common Curiosities
What is a conjecture?
A conjecture is a theory or opinion formed without solid evidence or complete information.
How does surmise differ from conjecture?
Surmise is an inference or guess based on limited evidence or intuition, whereas conjecture may not be based on any evidence at all.
Is it possible for a conjecture to become a fact?
Yes, if a conjecture is tested and proven through rigorous scientific methods, it can become an accepted fact or theory.
Are conjectures and surmises always speculative?
While both involve elements of speculation, surmises are generally more grounded in evidence compared to conjectures.
Why is conjecture important in scientific research?
Conjecture is important because it stimulates hypothesis generation, guiding the direction of experimental research.
Can conjectures lead to scientific breakthroughs?
Yes, conjectures can lead to scientific breakthroughs when they inspire new research that uncovers previously unknown facts.
Can a surmise be proven wrong?
Yes, like any inference or guess, a surmise can be proven wrong as more information becomes available.
Can a surmise be considered a form of evidence?
No, a surmise is not evidence; it is an inference made from available evidence or intuition.
How can a surmise be useful in everyday decision-making?
A surmise can be useful for making quick judgments or decisions when there is insufficient time to gather complete information.
How do conjecture and surmise contribute to critical thinking?
They encourage the evaluation of information from different angles, the consideration of multiple possibilities, and the formulation of educated guesses, all of which are critical to developing strong critical thinking skills.
Is surmising a skill that can be improved?
Yes, the ability to make accurate surmises can improve with experience and a better understanding of how to interpret available evidence.
How do experts use conjecture in their fields?
Experts use conjecture to formulate hypotheses that can be tested, driving research and discovery in their fields.
What role does intuition play in surmising?
Intuition can play a significant role in surmising, helping individuals make educated guesses based on their experiences and the evidence at hand.
How do conjectures and surmises differ in their level of certainty?
Conjectures usually represent a lower level of certainty, as they are often not based on solid evidence, while surmises are based on some evidence or strong intuition, providing a higher level of certainty.
Can conjectures be harmful if incorrect?
Incorrect conjectures can mislead research or public opinion, but they are also an essential part of the process of discovery and understanding.
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Written by
Urooj ArifUrooj is a skilled content writer at Ask Difference, known for her exceptional ability to simplify complex topics into engaging and informative content. With a passion for research and a flair for clear, concise writing, she consistently delivers articles that resonate with our diverse audience.
Co-written by
Fiza RafiqueFiza Rafique is a skilled content writer at AskDifference.com, where she meticulously refines and enhances written pieces. Drawing from her vast editorial expertise, Fiza ensures clarity, accuracy, and precision in every article. Passionate about language, she continually seeks to elevate the quality of content for readers worldwide.
